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In this study, have measured the effect of oil price shocks on inflation rate in short-run and long-run in 1970-2007 in Iran. In this way, first passing-through coefficient of oil price to inflation in short-run and long-run by estimating Phillips curve by seasonal data were measured and the stability of these coefficients by break structure test were investigated. So, gradual changes of passing-through of oil price to inflation by time-varying coefficient regression were measured and finally effective factors on oil price passing-through to inflation were investigated. Result indicated that the coefficients of oil price passing-through to inflation in long-run and short-run were about 38 and 8.6 percentages, respectively. Results of investigating effective factors on oil price shocks on inflation indicated that true management of excess incomes of oil, improving money policies and preparing suitable substructures for increasing competition power of domestic producers can be useful for preventing of inflating effects of oil shocks.

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This paper investigates factors of contagion between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector in Iran during 1367:1- 1389:4. For this reason, the dynamic correlation between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector has been analyzed by means of the DCC Model. Then, in order to explain the changes in dynamic correlation between oil price and Industry and Mine sector growth, we estimated MSIXH(2)-ARX(0,0) model. Our results show that crude oil price have a positive impact on Industry and Mine sector growth, which is explained by real import, real government consumption expenditure, Inflation, real effective exchange rate and oil price that can be controled. These results suggest that in order to increase Industry and Mine sector growth, increasing import of intermediate goods along with structural policies for increasing the compatitiveness of domestic products and non-oil export promotion policies, reduction in government consumption expenditure and implementing policies to stabilize the general price level and government consumption expenditure against changes in oil prices is necessary.

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The review of energy, as a strategic commodity in the world, also analyzing how the effect of its movement prices on the key economy factors, has always been important. Significance of this case is multiplied in IRAN, because this country is one of the huge crude oil and gas exporters in the word. On the other hand, expanding the non-oil export expansion has been gravity point of policy makers thinking for several reasons such as crude oil price volatilities and revenue from its export. Accordingly, methanol as one of the most used petrochemical products has great potential in the field of production and non-oil exports in that country. Therefore, the main aim of this survey is investigate the dynamic relationship between Irans crude oil and methanol prices by using weekly time series data from last week of 1387/10 to last week of 1390/6 and applying the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of this study show that there is a significant positive long run relationship between the crude oil and the methanol prices, while this is not their short run relationship. Moreover, Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient is significant in 95% confidence level and it is equal to -0.11. Furthermore, the result of impulse-response function confirms that, firstly, the methanol and the crude oil prices have direct relationship and secondly, the crude oil price shocks will effect on the methanol price in long term.

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Review of economic developments in Iran over the past four decades has shown that oil revenues, has had deep and wide impact on economic indicators. The Two channels which oil price changes directly or indirectly affect inflation _as the most important Economic variables_ are: increase in demand (Mainly by government public budget and Influencing the components of monetary base and money supply) and increase in production costs (via the price of factors of production). In this regard, the present paper attempts to investigate the nature and causes of oil price pass-through into inflation in the short-and-long term analysis of the pass-through and in addition design the necessary policies to control its destructive consequences. For this purpose, the dynamic error correction model was used and the data were collected monthly from 1380/1 to 1390/1. The findings showed that the oil price pass-through into inflation in both short-and-long term were Positive and incomplete. Therefore, it would be useful in policymaking.

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The impact of oil price volatility on the financial markets in Iran Review: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of oil price uncertainty on the financial markets (exchange rates, coin price index and stock prices) using time series data for the period 1384 to 1392. For the modeling of the effects of oil price uncertainty on stock indices, exchange rates and gold prices ARCH and GARCH models to test the effects of oil price uncertainty on the markets, their methods of vector regression (VAR) is used. The estimated results indicate a negative correlation between oil prices and instability in financial markets. The results of analysis of variance showed that the greatest impact on stock index of the exchange rate, uncertainty of oil prices and the inflation and the price of gold. Therefore, we conclude that in the next period will be most affected by the exchange rate on stock indices, stock price index, inflation and the price of gold coins.
Key words: uncertainty of oil prices, financial markets, ARCH-GARCH family models Classification
JEL: P28, Q43