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Showing 2 results for Scenario Planning
S Razini, S.m Moghadastafreshi, S.m Bothaei, Volume 13, Issue 3 (10-2010)
Abstract
In this study some scenarios are designed and analyzed in order to future studyon Iran power plant development for meeting long term electricity demand. The aim of this study is analyzing effects of Iran electricity generation policies on shares of different power plants. Iran energy resources for power generation can be divided into three general categories: fossil, nuclear and renewable resources, therefore three scenarios based on each resource are designed and studied. For this purpose, current situation of electricity demand and supply in Iran are studied and possible paths for future power generation and possible answers to the question: “When, how much and which power plant should be built to support future demand?” are discussed. Hence using LEAP software, three scenarios are designed to supply 20 years demand and are presented in 5 year programs. Result shows that based onfossil scenario (business as usual), share of fossil recourses will ach to 82 percent of total resources until 2030. But based on thesecond scenario with development of utilization of nuclear energy, share of fossil recourses will be 67 percent and by emphasizing on renewable energies at the third scenario this share will be 70 percent.
Saleh Razini, S.m.m Tafreshi, S.m.t Bathaee, Volume 14, Issue 1 (4-2011)
Abstract
Considering the importance of scientific decision-making for planning, in this article a decision making framework for long term electricity generation planning, has been studied. For this purpose, using LEAP software, some scenarios have been designed for 20 years power generation planning in Iran. These scenarios are evaluated using Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP), which is based on expert opinions. Because the energy resources in Iran can be categorized as fossil, nuclear and renewable resources, three scenarios, each based on one of resources,have been designed. Different criteria for evaluating scenarios were extracted from various papers. Also in order to consider local conditions in decision making, Indigenous criteria were extracted from visions, policies and laws of Iran. Finally experts’ opinions were collected and scenarios wereprioritized by Expert Choice software. The results indicate according to the opinion of expert group, fossil resources are the most appropriate scenario for Iran power planning and renewable scenario is the second priority. According to this study the least important issue for energy planning is environmental issue, Whereas technical issues and economic issues respectively are the most effective factors for decision-making in Iran.
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