|
Scenario planning with the Aim of Future Study on Iran Power Generation Industry
|
S Razini *   , S.M Moghadastafreshi , S.M Bothaei |
| , Razinisaleh@ee.kntu.ac.ir |
|
|
Abstract: (31181 Views) |
| In this study some scenarios are designed and analyzed in order to future studyon Iran power plant development for meeting long term electricity demand. The aim of this study is analyzing effects of Iran electricity generation policies on shares of different power plants. Iran energy resources for power generation can be divided into three general categories: fossil, nuclear and renewable resources, therefore three scenarios based on each resource are designed and studied. For this purpose, current situation of electricity demand and supply in Iran are studied and possible paths for future power generation and possible answers to the question: “When, how much and which power plant should be built to support future demand?” are discussed. Hence using LEAP software, three scenarios are designed to supply 20 years demand and are presented in 5 year programs. Result shows that based onfossil scenario (business as usual), share of fossil recourses will ach to 82 percent of total resources until 2030. But based on thesecond scenario with development of utilization of nuclear energy, share of fossil recourses will be 67 percent and by emphasizing on renewable energies at the third scenario this share will be 70 percent. |
|
| Keywords: Long term planning, power generation in Iran, scenario planning |
|
|
Full-Text [PDF 769 kb]
(2680 Downloads)
|
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Energy Planning Models
Received: 2011/12/26 | Published: 2010/10/15
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Send email to the article author |
|
|
|
| Add your comments about this article |
|
|
|
